Silicon Valley has many obsessions: beanbag chairs, slide decks, and nonsensical names, but none are as beloved—or as metaphorically overused-as the S-curve.
An S-curve is a graph that illustrates the progress of a project or process over time, typically showing slow initial growth, a period of rapid growth, and then a slowing down to a plateau or decline.
It's named for the shape it resembles, with a gradual upward slope initially, a steeper incline during the rapid growth phase, and then a leveling off or decline towards the end. (I would include a graphic, but to be respectful of the creative work of others, I do not include graphics in my emails anymore. You should Google it, though.)
Every major tech leap has followed this consonant-shaped pattern. Electricity. Telephones. The internet. Smartphones. And even TikTok dance challenges follow this same trajectory. Sadly, the TikTok reference might make the most sense to you the reader.
And now, we are neck-deep in the S-curve of artificial intelligence. AI crawled its way out of the lab with clunky chatbot responses and autocorrect that thought "duck" was the word we wanted. Then it sprinted—suddenly writing code, composing haikus, deepfaking Golden Retrievers dressed in tutus and playing the trombone (yes, I did that), and producing emails that make me sound more intelligent than I actually am.
So, where am I headed with this? (Spoiler alert)
As a part of the Band Dad Podcast, my co-host, Chris Flynn, and I interviewed our Band Director, Mr. Miles Denny. We played a game of "Now and Then," in which Miles and I worked through how I would handle something back then (when I was a teacher) versus how he would handle it now. It was really interesting, you can check it out on the bonus episode of the Band Dad's Podcast.
As a surprise, I flipped the script - and asked Chris and Denny (as he is affectionately known) an important question – would they prefer their kids were in band NOW (today), or THEN, in fifteen years (when Miles's son will be a freshman in high school).
What difference does a decade and a half make?
In a recent e-zine, I mentioned that three percent growth over 25 years means the marching band has grown by 109% in the last twenty-five years—more drill, music, and rehearsal, but also more achievement.
We can all agree on that. More is better, especially when it comes to achievement.
It begs the question - in the grand scheme of modern marching band (let's say the mid 1970's when drum corps became a thing), where are the marching arts on the "S curve?" Are we in the rapid growth phase from straight lines and flip folders to body movement and amplification, or are we towards the top of the "S" where innovation is slowing as widespread adoption of modern techniques materializes?
Perhaps most important – is how much more growth do we want? How much more growth can we sustain in a healthy manner? What is realistic?
In answering the question, my Mr. Flynn shared a remarkable insight as a parent:
"I don't know that it (marching band) needs to be that much harder - it is sufficiently difficult enough to teach the lessons it NEEDS to teach. Making it much more difficult would not necessarily improve the lessons we learn from it."
"Sufficiently difficult to teach the lessons it needs to teach."
That quote hit me like a ton of bricks when I heard it.
In reflecting on it as I write this article, it also struck me that this might be an indicator that we have left the curly part of the S and are closer to the top.
Keep in mind, the top doesn't mean we stop getting better, just that we do so in a more sustainable and achievable pace.
I believe that innovation will continue and the activity will continue to grow, but do I think that in the next twenty-five years we will see the same growth we have seen in the past twenty-five? Will we double the average number of drill pages, add another 1.5 grades of musical difficulty, and achieve at twice the level that we are today? Will the activity be 109% more difficult in 2050 than in 2025?
Probably not. But I could be wrong – I often am.
But does it need to be harder? If more demand does not equally equate to more learning, then what is the value proposition. Is difficulty, just for the sake of being difficult, a worthy endeavor? Should we add 50% more rehearsal time to get 10% better?
The answer to that question depends on where your program is on the "S curve."
While the activity may be approaching the top of the S Curve, that does not mean you are. You may be taking over a program at the bottom of the curve or in the middle of explosive growth. You may achieve incredible things with your marching band (top of the curve) while starting a jazz program from scratch (bottom of the curve). So it's possible that different parts of your program and the students who participate might be in different places on the curve.
But that's a conversation for next week's e-zine.
So let me ask you a question. Would you rather have your own child in band then (fifteen years from now), or now? Miles (my son's band director), never did answer. Hhhhhmmmmmm.
What's your answer? When would you place your child in band? When would you want to teach?
Have a great week.
Scott